Browse chapters
Pick a topic. Read one chapter. If it hits, get the full book.
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CHAPTER 18 — Taming Intuitive Predictions
Read: CHAPTER 18 — Taming Intuitive PredictionsFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewSharePredictions feel like insight, but they are often extrapolations from a small, vivid set of cues. Intuition overreacts…
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CHAPTER 17 — Regression to the Mean
Read: CHAPTER 17 — Regression to the MeanFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareExtreme performances tend to be followed by less extreme ones. This is not fate, punishment, or reward. It…
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CHAPTER 16 — Causes Trump Statistics
Read: CHAPTER 16 — Causes Trump StatisticsFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareYour mind is built to see causes. When you encounter a pattern, you immediately ask what produced it,…
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CHAPTER 15 — Linda: Less is More
Read: CHAPTER 15 — Linda: Less is MoreFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareSome judgments feel more plausible when they are more detailed. A richer story seems more “real,” even if…
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CHAPTER 14 — Tom W’s Specialty
Read: CHAPTER 14 — Tom W’s SpecialtyFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareWhen you judge what someone is “like,” you rely on resemblance to a stereotype. A description that fits…
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CHAPTER 13 — Availability, Emotion, and Risk
Read: CHAPTER 13 — Availability, Emotion, and RiskFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareRisk rarely feels statistical. It feels emotional. If a hazard is vivid, frightening, or easy to picture, it…
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CHAPTER 12 — The Science of Availability
Read: CHAPTER 12 — The Science of AvailabilityFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareYou assess frequency and probability by ease of recall. If examples come to mind quickly, the event feels…
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CHAPTER 11 — Anchors
Read: CHAPTER 11 — AnchorsFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareNumbers you encounter—even irrelevant ones—can become anchors. Once an anchor is present, your estimates drift toward it, as…
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CHAPTER 10 — The Law of Small Numbers
Read: CHAPTER 10 — The Law of Small NumbersFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareSmall samples tempt you into strong stories. A few observations feel like evidence of a pattern, especially when…
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CHAPTER 9 — Answering an Easier Question
Read: CHAPTER 9 — Answering an Easier QuestionFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareWhen faced with a hard question, the mind often performs a quiet substitution. Instead of answering what was…
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CHAPTER 8 — How Judgments Happen
Read: CHAPTER 8 — How Judgments HappenFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareJudgment often begins as impression. The fast system proposes a verdict—good, bad, risky, safe—before you have articulated reasons.…
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CHAPTER 7 — A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
Read: CHAPTER 7 — A Machine for Jumping to ConclusionsFrom Thinking, Fast and Slow — ← Back to chapter overviewShareThe fast system is built to leap. It turns partial evidence into a whole picture, then treats that…