The world changes in ways that feel obvious only in retrospect. People build plans from the last decade, then act shocked when the next decade doesn’t behave the same.
Surprises are not anomalies; they’re the baseline. New technologies appear, markets evolve, policies shift, social norms flip, and what once felt impossible becomes normal. The future is not a straight extension of the past.
So the smartest posture is humility. You don’t need to predict every turn; you need to avoid building a life that breaks when a turn arrives. That means avoiding extreme certainty—extreme leverage, extreme spending, extreme narratives about “what will definitely happen.”
Surprise is also personal. Your own life will change: goals, tastes, relationships, energy, priorities. The plan that makes sense today may look absurd later.
If you want a strategy that endures, design it for a world that can shock you—because it will.